Futuristic mobility solutions rev up but ICE tech to rule till 2035

Three days after Michigan-based software company Altair Engineering and Autocar Professional hosted their first edition of a panel discussion on ‘Next Gen Transportation Ideas for Emerging Markets’ in Bangalore, the second round was held in New Delhi on July 16.

Like the event in the garden city, the one held in the capital city saw a panel of five eminent industry representatives. They comprised Kamal Bali, managing director, Volvo India; C V Raman, executive director, engineering, Maruti Suzuki India; Pankaj Dubey, country head and managing director, Polaris India; James R Scapa, chairman and CEO, Altair, and Gerrit Van Der Oever, vice-president and head of product development, AVL Technical Center.

The discerning audience at the seminar, which was held at Le Meridien, was made up of a good number of senior officials across various segments in the automotive industry. The panel discussion was moderated by Autocar Professional’s associate editor, Sumantra B Barooah.

In line with the conference theme, all presentations discussed the changing dynamics of the automotive industry on the back of the vehicle explosion on the roads, rising income of the middle class, transformation in consumer preferences, convergence of many need-based utilities into simple and smart-to-operate solutions, concerns over deteriorating environmental factors, global warming, safety, security and sustainability of various modes of automotive transportation across the world.

Citing examples of the initiatives taken by the Volvo Group and highlighting the three dimensions of the sustainable transport solutions – economic viability, environmental factors and social needs (safety and security of human life), Kamal Bali said: “At Volvo, we look at energy efficiency and alternate energy mediums as big solutions which will see wider applications. Volvo’s position on alternate energy is very clear. We rolled out our first hybrid bus in 2009 and first fully electric bus in 2015 in Gothenburg.”

Bali, who spoke about four megatrends (digitisation, economic power shift from west to east, widening economic disparity and relationship with the planet), had a word of caution about depleting natural resources. “We are using close to 1.4 times of the natural resources that are available to us on earth. All companies associated with providing sustainable transportation solutions must mull over ways to improve the utilisation of the natural resources. This is possible only via partnerships and cooperation across the industry is the key to ensure this step,” stated Bali.

Meanwhile, voicing his concern on the need for environment-friendly mobility solutions, Pankaj Dubey of Polaris India, said: “We must give a thought to developing an industry for off-road vehicles that can ply on terrain where there are no roads rather than spending money on building them (thus cutting down trees and disturbing the environment by doing so).” Eicher Polaris, a 50:50 JV between Eicher Motors and Polaris Industries Inc, recently launched the Multix, a 510cc, diesel-engined, multi-utility four-wheeler targeted at businessmen in Tier 2 and 3 towns in India.

Stressing upon the possible requirements of smart cities in the future that may include bullet trains and amphibious buses, Dubey also cited some interesting mobility ideas such as closed vehicles using ropeways for transporting people.

CV Raman of Maruti Suzuki, on the other hand, spoke about factors that will guide upcoming trends in the mobility solutions from today. “India’s GDP is going to double up by 2020, our infrastructure spending is expected to multiply by 1.5 times by 2020, and our annual per capita income will grow by four times from 2010 to 2020, which means that more people will be able to afford cars in the near future. Further regulations such as BNVSAP (Bharat New vehicle Safety Assessment Program), fuel efficiency star ratings and a new Motor Vehicle Act that will transform the voluntary recall practices to mandatory recall practices across the industry will certainly bring in new changes to the existing vehicles. Under the NEMMP (National Electric Mobility Mission Plan), the government has granted Rs 750 crore for encouraging innovations in the area of mild and strong hybrid solutions for Indian vehicles. We are surely heading towards such solutions,” he added.

Commenting on engine technology trends, Gerrit Van Den Oever of AVL highlighted that ICE (internal combustion engine) powerplants will continue to dominate global penetration of engine technology up to 2035. “While 2015 onwards we will see slight development in the areas of vehicle hybridisation, ICE engines will continue to command more than 75 percent of the total vehicle population in the world by 2035. In transmission technologies, manual transmissions will continue to dominate by 2035 in the developing economies, despite an improving demand for the AMTs,” he pointed out.

Quoting his key takeaway from Bill Gates’ book, The Road Ahead, James R Scapa of Altair remarked that “sometimes the technologies that we think will come 20 years later may actually come sooner than the technologies we are anticipating for tomorrow. It seems that the next generation may not buy cars at all and rather use services like Uber and Ola.”

All panellists were of the consensus that while ICE tech will improve, it will continue to co-exist in an environment of increasing recognition for hybrid and electric vehicles in the years to come. Enduring sustainability, however, lies in cleaner and greener technologies for personal as well as public mobility.

Also read: Connected cars, alternative fuel tech to drive transport industry, say experts at Altair-Autocar Professional panel discussion