All electric fleet by 2030 ambitious but not fully-achievable; Jato LMC

India saw sales of more than 66,000 hybrid and electric passenger cars in 2016, but just 100 of these were battery electric vehicles (BEVs), according to JATO-LMC Automotive.

Despite the small market for BEVs in India at present, the Indian Government has announced comprehensive plans to make sales of all new passenger cars fully electric by 2030. The major changes to the taxation policy in the form of Goods and Services Tax (GST) scheme has provided favourable conditions for electric cars to grow, but many obstacles are still in the way for widespread adoption of EVs.

So far, the target set by the Indian Government for the electrification of cars is by far the most ambitious one made by a major car market globally. As a result, the plan has received much attention, which stems from a report that was jointly published by NITI Aayog and the US-based Rocky Mountain Institute earlier in 2017, which proposed a roadmap for achieving the electrification target.

It still remains unclear that how many of the proposals outlined in the report, have or will be committed to by the Government. Or an outright ban on internal combustion engines is eventually planned to be in place by the government.

The new target set by the central government is done with a view to reduce the country's reliance on ballooning oil imports, where it operates at a deficit, along with reducing air pollution, particularly in cities like Delhi, where air quality regularly have reached appalling levels. According to JATO LMC’s forecast, achieving the target would help India improve its automotive R&D capabilities, while establishing the country as a leader in innovation.

As per the research, there are many significant obstacles to transform the passenger car market in India. Crucially, though, there is the issue of much needed fast recharging infrastructure, as vehicle owners will opt towards non-plug-in BEVs if there is no convenient place for them to quickly recharge their vehicle.

India at present has around 200 public charging stations across the country and a colossal investment is required to get this number on par with the number of conventional fuel stations. LMC Automotive and JATO don't see any reassuring signs that this is being undertaken so far though and shared mobility services and the private sector can only do so much to alleviate this –the government needs to take the lead.

With driving range, model choice and cost remains a global barrier, India can address this by making significant investment in R&D and the expansion of local manufacturing capabilities. The parts and materials will need to be available locally if they are to mitigate costs in a sector that already has small profit margins.

The OEMs will further need to replace their internal combustion engine (ICE) production plants with those manufacturing electric powertrains. This transition will need to address production capacity in general, so that the industry can achieve output in the order of 10 million battery electric cars per year by 2030.

JATO and LMC research points out that the technological know-how can be acquired through international joint ventures, with few Indian companies already taking a step towards this. A significant breakthrough in BEV driving range and battery costs is expected by the middle part of the next decade, but the necessary partnerships will be needed to be in place.

Powering Green Mobility

Currently, it is estimated 86 percent of India’s electricity generation comes from fossil fuels. While power shortages will also aggravate unless, steps are not taken to upgrade India’s electricity infrastructure. The government will also need to ensure that the power generation comes from renewable sources, and not so that the fossil fuel problem is simply shifted from the cars to power station.

The research points that India's 2030 target for achieving a fleet of all electric passenger cars seems unlikely to be fully achievable as long as these barriers exist. However, the country is well placed to take advantage of the success of shared mobility services and electric cars can greatly succeed in the commercial fleet market.

Commenting on the research findings, Ravi Bhatia, president, India, JATO, says, "By unveiling this policy, the Government has set a clear direction for the automotive industry in India. The policy addresses the strategic objectives of reducing oil imports and increasing power capacity utilisation, whilst also helping to reduce the chronic pollution seen in high density areas across the country. However, the Indian automotive industry is the sixth biggest in the world and it will be some time before the affects of the changes are felt, as OEMs redraw their vehicle line-ups and powertrain strategies, whilst they also try and keep up to speed with the tsunami of technology advancement in the personal transportation arena.”