Switch Mobility sees 12-13% EV penetration in LCVs by 2030; eyes 15-20% market share

Driven by last and mid-mile deliveries and companies looking to cut emissions, electric vehicle penetration in the country’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment is likely to hit a double-digit by the end of this decade. 

Switch Mobility Chief Executive Officer Mahesh Babu projects EV penetration in LCVs (goods carriers under 7 tons) to reach 5% in the next two to three years, and improve further to 12-13% by 2030. 

“The industry volume (LCV) was around 5 lakh units last year and EV sales were close to 4,000 units. By 2030, this overall volume could reach 8 lakh units, and at least 1 lakh units will be electric. We are looking at 13-14% adoption by 2030,” Babu told Autocar Professional.

Switch Mobility sees faster adoption in the LCV segment among goods carriers, considering lower total cost of ownership, net zero commitment by many players, government incentives, and investments in advanced products that meet customer requirements.

Babu is optimistic that the government will soon reintroduce FAME subsidies for LCVs. While EV adoption could happen even in the absence of subsidies, he believes the rate of adoption will be higher if there is a subsidy. 
“Today, there is no FAME subsidy for the segment and we are selling. The EV adoption will increase with the subsidy, but the adoption by itself doesn't need a subsidy,” he noted. 

Switch targets 15-20% market share by 2030

Ashok Leyland-owned Switch Mobility is targeting a market share in the range of 15% to 20% by the end of the decade. The automaker rolled out its first electric LCV IeV4  recently while it started the delivery of the second model IeV3  on Wednesday.

Switch Mobility's current focus is on LCVs and buses with the expectation of faster adoption in these segments. Babu expects the electrification in higher tonnage segments to take time, considering the need for a better charging infrastructure.
“Charging is not a big problem for LCVs because it is mostly captive and the vehicle is not running 200 km one way and coming back,” he said.

With these two products, the company believes that it can cover at least 80% of the addressable market for electric vehicles in this segment. “We may need a higher capacity and lower capacity products going forward, maybe in 2-3 years. We will evaluate the situation and take a call on this,” Babu added.