IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts deep recession in 2020

The International Monetary Fund’s latest update to the World Economic Outlook still forecasts a deep recession in 2020 with global growth projected to be -4.4 percent. This is 0.8 percentage point above the June 2020 WEO Update forecast.

The stronger projection for 2020  compared with the June 2020 WEO Update reflects the net effect of two competing factors: the upward impetus from better-than-anticipated second quarter GDP outturns (mostly in advanced economies) versus the downdraft from persistent social distancing and stalled reopenings in the second half of the year.

In terms of the outlook for India, IMF expects the 2020 growth to slide to -10.3 percent from 4.2 percent in 2019. However, in 2021, growth is seen recovering to close to 9 percent. 

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath says, “So we continue to project a deep recession in 2020 with global growth projected to be -4.4 percent.  This is a small upgrade relative to our June numbers. We expect growth to rebound partially in 2021, coming back to 5.2 percent. However, with the exception of China, all advanced economies and emerging and developing economies, excluding China we are projecting output will remain below 2019 levels well into 2021. Therefore, we see that the recovery from this catastrophic collapse will likely be long and even highly uncertain.”

As the world tries to bounce back from the economic turmoil caused by the Covid-19, Gopinath argues that there will be risks to the recovery, but also a chance things can improve. “There are broad risks to the upside and to the downside. On the upside, we could have positive development in terms of treatments and vaccines that could hasten the end of this health crisis. And we could also have more policy support that would help. But there are many downside risks. We could have worse news on the health front, and we could have greater financial turmoil at a time when debt is at the highest level in recorded history. And we have rising geopolitical tensions that could also derail the recovery,” she said from her home in Boston.

Gopinath added that the road to recovery will be a difficult ascent and gave recommendations on how policies could be designed to put economies on a healthy growth path.

“First, it is essential that fiscal and monetary policy are not prematurely withdrawn as this crisis is far from over. Second, we need much greater international collaboration to end this health crisis by making sure that when once new treatments and vaccines are available, then it will be produced a sufficient scale to be available widely in all countries. And lastly, policies should be designed towards putting economies on a path towards more sustainable, inclusive and prosperous growth,” said Gopinath.