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EVs: India & the world
At Autocar Professional’s third Automotive Forum held in Chennai on August 13, speakers discuss perspectives around the challenge of electric mobility in India, highlighting both its promise and the road ahead. Brian de Souza reports.
As one of the world’s key emerging markets for passenger cars, one cannot take the Indian market lightly. The sales numbers that OEMs tot up here can make the difference to their overseas parent companies’ performance, even as the global car market shifts inexorably eastwards.
But there’s another challenge coming up, that of green cars basically those run by electricity in various forms and for which, potentially, India is an opportunity. Or is it? With one of the world’s highest two-wheeler populations, increasing urbanisation and the challenge of energy security, electric mobility is as relevant here as it is in the developed world.
So what is the promise of the Indian market? To discuss this and more, Autocar Professional's third Automotive Forum on the theme of ‘Evolution of Electric Mobility’ kicked off in Chennai on August 13 with a galaxy of the best speakers in the business.
Driving towards a fossil-free future
Inaugurating the seminar, Hormazd Sorabjee, editor, Autocar India, said EVs are an exciting and timely topic that would interest stakeholders in the auto sector as a result of their implications for a fossil-free future. Given the recent launch of the BMW i3, among others, Sorabjee said that full EVs are becoming a reality.
Delivering the first presentation, Chikuya Takada, Head of Product Planning, GM, Nissan Motor India and previously, manager, Product Strategy and Planning Department of Nissan’s Zero Emission Business Unit, described Nissan’s plan for vehicle electrification, and its own forecast for this shift that encompasses engines, transmissions and products like the all-electric Leaf, one of which Takada drives back home in Japan.
On EVs in particular, Takada spoke about the fact that their success depends on the buyer not having the status-quo bias. Happily, India does not have that bias and given that awareness of EVs is low in the country, there is, ironically, huge potential here.
Takada spoke about Nissan’s aim for EV leadership alluding to the challenges of Vehicle to Grid and Vehicle to Home, highlighting the implications of both, the former requiring a network of suppliers and the government, the latter consumer choice reliability. One key issue he raised was the disposal of used EV batteries highlighting in a sense, an environmental challenge surrounding green vehicles.
Reva-lution in India
As the manufacturer of India’s only EV, it was only natural that all wanted to hear what Mahindra Reva’s head of business strategy had to say. KartikGopal, GM (Mobility Solutions & Business Development), Mahindra Reva, spoke about what consumers are saying, how the e2O came about and contextualised this against the larger issue of energy security. The key topics that came up were awareness, investments needed (a long-term commitment) and the fact that power shortages are among India’s biggest challenges. And fleshing out a consumer angle, he said that in 2013 all air-conditioners in homes would consume more energy than all EVs even a decade or so later.
Summarising the benefits of EVs, Gopal said that with critical numbers, they can engender a multiplier effect when powered by solar energy. For example, one reason he cited is that the e2O comes with the option of a solar charging station. He also gave the audience insights into how the e2O came into being, and how in its design and manufacturing, Mahindra Reva sought it make it a value proposition for the buyer. In fact, the company is now tweaking its sales proposition for its EV by allowing potential buyers to use the e2O for a few days to gain a real-world experience of living with an EV.
Reality check
The value proposition was a theme that came up in another presentation, that of MohitArora, executive director, JD Power Asia Pacific, who provided a global context for EVs (including President Barack Obama’s $2.4 billion plan for EVs) saying that as emerging countries drive energy demand, the need for gas and renewable energy is ever more important. EVs, he said, are not just vehicles but involve a change in lifestyle.
In his presentation, he said JD Power while not being very optimistic about EVs and their derivatives, believes that EVs are going to be increasingly important especially in Asia where China and Japan will be key markets with the former leading in BEVs or battery EVs and Japan focusing on hybrids.
The challenges of EVs are three-fold, Arora said, highlighting the need to create an environment for such vehicles to take off. Here the role of government is crucial with the latter being in a position to help with fiscal and non-fiscal incentives. Secondly, the eco-system matters, he emphasised. EVs have every chance of succeeding if all stakeholders, especially battery makers, collaborate to improve battery technology in order to lower costs and improve range. And finally, consumer acceptance is above all crucial and will happen only if the potential buyer sees value and also the possibility of getting a re-sale for his vehicle.
An interesting anecdote that Arora offered was about the Chevrolet Volt in the US where users prefer to charge their cars at night to save on costs. However, the flip side is that with a good number of EV owners hooking up to the grid after sundown, the power grid in some US states is under pressure and cannot be maintained regularly.
Overall, three out of four top concerns of EV ownership, Arora said, are battery-related with driving range and lifespan being the top-most concerns.
Need for Indian paradigm on EVs
In the absence of a government representative, SuvujoySengupta, managing director of Booz & Company (India), who has worked with the government in the run-up to the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP), asked a very pertinent question as to whether EVs could be considered more important than building better roads and improving public transport. He also fleshed out aspects of the NEMMP such as job creation (60,000 jobs) and savings of the order of Rs 13,000-14,000 crore on India’s burgeoning fuel bill by 2020.
And while there was a general gung-ho feeling on EVs, he said ICEs are gaining but not enough on efficiency and emissions but consumers would necessarily have to bear higher costs.
From a policy perspective, Sengupta underscored the need for an Indian paradigm for electric mobility, given the large proportion of two-wheelers, power shortages and usage patterns (largely shorter trips). This, he, said would necessarily involve regulatory innovations, technical innovations and business innovations or collaborations.
Perhaps, in the Indian context, his most important statement was to highlight that opportunities in public transport electrification must be looked at. That, of course, will not be easy given the state of India’s public transportation, affordability and its loss-making state-run transport entities. For the long term, he stressed the need for investments which will, doubtless, be a considerable sum.
At the personal mobility level, Sengupta echoed earlier speakers who said that wider acceptance of a new technology would depend on prices given the Indian buyer’s price-sensitive nature.
Vendor eco-system
The final speaker, ThalavaiVenkatesan, Head of Engineering & Systems Engine Systems, Continental Automotive (India), gave a perspective on suppliers, a key part of the eco-system that earlier speakers had alluded to as important.
Putting developments at Continental in perspective, Venkatesan said electrification is key to much more than EVs. Outlining Continental’s agenda, he said it comprises making propulsion systems more efficient, contributing to a clean environment and enabling superior driving performance. The need for tailor-fit solutions is important and Venkatesan described the journey from fuel saving with low voltage technology (12v right across to 100 percent electric driving which comprises full hybids, plug-ins and a full electric vehicle). He also highlighted the work that Continental’s JV with SKI of Korea is doing on battery management systems.
He concluded that the degree of electrification must be aligned to the vehicle and the driving profile and in the process emphasised the importance of Human-Machine Interface, driver involvement and tyres (all areas in which Continental AG is involved).
Empowering EVs
The deliberations at the seminar basically shone a torch on various aspects of EV mobility but clearly there was unanimity on the fact that from a buyer’s viewpoint, costs and the issue of range anxiety will not go away in a hurry. Even Mahindra Reva’sGopal admitted that the real testing ground for the e20, launched in March 2013, may well be in the export markets (Europe) where the car will be exported.
Finally, among the questions asked by the audience, one pertained to the political angle. Throughout the session, the aspect of governmental support cropped up; given India’s high fuel bill, deteriorating finances as seen in the CAD and public health (ie air quality), it is the government that can give a real and sustained push to electric mobility.
In the current situation, EVs have to be seen through a prism that includes energy security, the need for long-term commitment and finally, the fact that though subsidies (only offered by Delhi) are important, they cannot continue in perpetuity. As Arora summed it, "We need to define the inflection points for people changing to EVs and that may take a while.”
The Automotive Forum in Chennai, which was sponsored by NBC Bearings and Continental, was attended by close to 100 delegates representing around 55 leading companies.