Indian Two-Wheeler Shipments Up 4.9% in 2025, Falls Short of 2019 Record

India's two-wheeler industry posted modest growth in 2025 with dispatches reaching 20.50 million units, up 4.9% from the previous year, but the sector continues to operate below its historical peak achieved six years ago, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

While the industry celebrated crossing the 20-million mark for only the second time in a calendar year, wholesales remain significantly below the record set in 2018, highlighting the challenges the sector faces in regaining its pre-pandemic momentum despite favorable policy interventions and strong festive season demand.

The gap underscores a persistent struggle for the two-wheeler segment, which has yet to fully recover the ground lost during the economic disruptions of recent years. Industry sources acknowledge that despite the implementation of GST 2.0, multiple repo rate cuts, and income tax relief measures in 2025, annual dispatches have plateaued well below the heights achieved during the sector's boom years.

The segment's performance in 2025 showed uneven growth patterns across subcategories. While scooter wholesales demonstrated healthy expansion at 12.7%, reaching 75.24 million units for the calendar year, motorcycle dispatches grew by a mere 1.1% to 124.83 million units. The moped category contracted 4.1%, with shipments declining to 4.94 million units, further dampening overall sector performance.

This divergence points to a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with urban-centric scooter demand outpacing rural and semi-urban markets where motorcycles traditionally dominate. Industry analysts note that while urban consumers have responded positively to improved affordability measures, rural demand has remained sluggish, preventing the industry from achieving the broad-based growth necessary to surpass historical records.

The fiscal year-to-date figures through December 2025 paint a similar picture. Two-wheeler dispatches from April to December 2025 totaled 159.33 million units, representing just 5.9% growth over the same period in the previous fiscal year. This modest expansion suggests that despite strong policy support, underlying demand constraints persist.

However, the industry did experience a significant surge during the October-December quarter of fiscal 2025-26, with wholesales reaching a record 5.70 million units for any third quarter, marking the first time quarterly dispatches exceeded 5 million units. This 16.9% growth over Q3 of the previous year was primarily driven by the festive season and the cumulative impact of government stimulus measures.

December 2025 proved particularly robust, with dispatches of 15.41 million units representing a striking 39.4% jump compared to December 2024. Scooters led the charge with 42.1% growth, while motorcycles posted 37.7% gains during the month, suggesting pent-up demand was finally being released.

Mr. Shailesh Chandra, President of SIAM, acknowledged both the achievements and the gap that remains. "2025 has been a landmark year for the Indian auto industry," he said, noting that two-wheelers "crossed the 20-million-mark sales for the second time in a calendar year with 20.50 million units, with a growth of 4.9% in 2025, though it is still below the peak it had achieved in 2018."

The admission that the sector remains below its 2018 peak, despite what industry leaders describe as the "strongest festive season in recent years" and unprecedented policy support, raises questions about structural challenges facing the industry.

On a more positive note, exports provided a bright spot, with overseas shipments reaching a record 4.94 million units in calendar year 2025, up 24.2% from 2024. The third quarter saw particularly strong export performance, with 1.37 million units dispatched internationally, marking 24.3% growth. Improving macroeconomic conditions in African markets and steady demand from South Asian countries drove this expansion.

Industry executives maintain an optimistic outlook despite the inability to breach previous records. Mr. Rajesh Menon, Director General of SIAM, emphasized that "all vehicle segments posted their highest ever Q3 wholesales in 2025-26 with double-digit growth," with two-wheelers achieving 16.9% quarterly expansion.

Looking ahead, the sector expects positive momentum to continue into 2026, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and continued policy support. However, the persistent gap between current dispatches and the 2018 peak suggests the industry still faces a challenging path to full recovery.

The year began with a subdued first half, and while the rollout of GST 2.0 and other structural reforms provided crucial support during the latter half, the inability to surpass historical benchmarks indicates that deeper market dynamics may require more time and sustained intervention to fully address.