As the industry assesses the potential production risks arising from the West Asia conflict, India’s domestic passenger vehicle dispatches are likely to grow in double digits in March 2026 from a year earlier, supported by strong pending bookings and an early festive season. Supply chain concerns linked to the war in West Asia have yet to significantly affect production.

Industry sources and brokerages expect domestic passenger vehicle dispatches to be in the range of 4.20-4.35 lakh units in March, representing growth of around 10-14% from 3.80 lakh units sold in March 2025.

The projected increase follows steady dispatch momentum seen in recent months and reflects stable demand conditions across segments. Sources said supply chain issues related to the war in West Asia are yet to start playing out in a meaningful way for vehicle manufacturers.

They indicated that the gas shortage is currently affecting mostly Tier-3 and Tier-4 component suppliers. The impact on original equipment manufacturers is expected to become visible once the shortage begins to affect Tier-1 and Tier-2 suppliers.

For now, production schedules remain largely intact, with automakers continuing to dispatch vehicles to dealers to meet demand.

On the demand side, industry sources pointed to a strong order pipeline. At the start of March, pending bookings across the industry were estimated to be more than 200,000 units. Maruti Suzuki alone accounted for around 190,000 pending bookings, reflecting sustained customer interest in key models.

Demand momentum was also supported by the Navratri festival season, which typically drives higher vehicle purchases. This year, the early onset of the festive period provided an additional boost to dispatch volumes.

Navratri was observed from March 19 to March 27 in 2026, compared with March 30 to April 7 in 2025. The earlier timing enabled dealers to record stronger sales activity within the same month, contributing to higher dispatch volumes from factories.

Brokerage firm Nomura estimates a 10% year-on-year increase in March passenger vehicle dispatches, broadly in line with industry expectations.

“We estimate wholesales for the PV industry at ~+10% y-y, while PV retail volumes in March 2026F are also expected to grow ~10% y-y, with M&M outperforming the industry. Waiting periods have largely normalised, except for select new launches such as the XUV 9e, XUV700; Hyundai Venue; and Tata Sierra,” Nomura said.

The brokerage also assessed the potential impact of geopolitical developments on consumer demand and production.

“While there have been concerns that the Iran-US war could impact consumer sentiment, so far there is negligible impact visible in our dealer surveys. We also do not expect any significant production impact in March 2026 due to the gas shortage,” Nomura said.