India's Two-Wheeler Market Shows Mixed Signals in May 2025 as ICRA Projects Steady Growth

India's two-wheeler market displayed contrasting performance indicators in May 2025, with wholesale volumes remaining flat while retail sales demonstrated growth, according to data released by credit rating agency ICRA. The agency projects domestic two-wheeler sales will expand by 6-9% in the fiscal year 2026.

Domestic wholesale volumes held steady at 1.58 million units in May 2025, showing no significant change from previous levels. This performance followed production disruptions in April 2025 when several manufacturers implemented temporary shutdowns for supply-chain realignment and scheduled maintenance activities.

Retail sales presented a more encouraging picture, recording year-on-year growth of approximately 7% in May 2025. The retail segment benefited from sustained demand in semi-urban and rural markets, driven by favorable conditions including auspicious marriage dates and the positive impact of a strong rabi harvest season.

The electric two-wheeler segment showed sequential improvement, with sales reaching 100,266 units in May 2025, representing a 9% increase from the previous month. Electric vehicle penetration in the two-wheeler category continues to fluctuate between 6-7% on a monthly basis, indicating steady but gradual adoption rates.

Export performance demonstrated notable strength with monthly volumes growing by 22%, though this growth occurred against a reduced baseline from previous periods. Export expansion remains partially constrained by foreign exchange shortages and inflationary pressures affecting key markets, particularly Nigeria.

India's two-wheeler industry represents one of the world's largest motorcycle and scooter markets, serving as a primary mode of transportation for millions of consumers. The sector's performance typically reflects broader economic conditions, rural income levels, and urban mobility patterns.

ICRA's forecast for 6-9% wholesale volume growth in FY2026 is based on several supporting factors. The agency expects steady replacement demand as existing vehicles reach end-of-life cycles, anticipates recovery in urban market demand, and projects healthy rural incomes supported by expectations of normal monsoon conditions during the upcoming agricultural season.

The two-wheeler market's trajectory will likely depend on factors including fuel prices, credit availability, monsoon performance, and overall economic growth in both urban and rural segments during the coming fiscal year.