Kearney report projects seven million annual EV sales by decade's end as tier-2 cities drive adoption faster than metropolitan areas
12 Sep 2025 | 7128 Views | By Angitha Suresh
India's two-wheeler industry is approaching a significant shift, with electric vehicles projected to account for 30% of total sales by 2030, according to a report released by global management consulting firm Kearney. The study estimates that seven million electric units could be sold annually by the end of the decade, ...
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India's two-wheeler industry is approaching a significant shift, with electric vehicles projected to account for 30% of total sales by 2030, according to a report released by global management consulting firm Kearney. The study estimates that seven million electric units could be sold annually by the end of the decade, with scooters comprising nearly 80% of this volume.
The transformation is already underway, with electric vehicle sales growing 3.5 times over the past three years and now representing approximately 7% of the overall market. The report, titled "Indian Two-Wheeler Industry – Themes to Win in the Next Era of Transformation," was launched at the 65th Annual Session of the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India.
Tier-2 and tier-3 cities are leading the electric transition, adopting EVs at two to three times the pace of metropolitan areas. This trend reflects increased confidence in battery performance and charging infrastructure in smaller cities, according to the study.
India currently serves as the world's largest two-wheeler manufacturing hub, producing 35% of global volumes. The domestic market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with sales reaching 19.6 million units in FY2025.
The report identifies several factors driving market changes beyond electrification. Urban mobility challenges including congestion and limited parking are pushing more residents toward two-wheelers, while a rising female workforce is accelerating scooter adoption. Consumer spending on advanced technologies such as ABS, digital clusters, and connectivity features is also increasing.
The delivery and gig economy represents a significant growth driver, with the sector projected to add an estimated 7-8 million vehicles over the next five years. Food, grocery, and logistics companies are increasingly incorporating electric vehicles into their fleet strategies.
Market segmentation is evolving as well. Scooter penetration is projected to reach 40% by FY2030, while premium motorcycles are attracting younger buyers. The 150cc segment has grown from 8% to 12% of the market mix over the past five years, and the 250cc-450cc category has expanded from 6% to 9%.
The study outlines four strategic priorities for original equipment manufacturers: diversifying product portfolios, accelerating product launches, building software capabilities, and investing in ecosystem partnerships. The report suggests these measures will be necessary to capture growth opportunities in the coming decade.
Household two-wheeler penetration is expected to rise from 75% in 2020 to 89% by 2030, indicating continued expansion potential for India's most widely used transportation mode.