Electric buses is expected account for half of India's new bus sales by 2035, while electric trucks may achieve 35% penetration, according to Olectra Greentech Chief Executive Officer Mahesh Babu. He believes adoption will be driven largely by economics rather than environmental concerns.
Babu noted commercial vehicles are likely to see faster adoption of electric vehicles than passenger vehicles because of their higher utilisation rates and stronger operating cost advantages.
"In India, you can talk anything on emission, everything, but unless you make unit economics work to customers, nobody is going to adopt it," Babu said, while stressing that affordability and cost savings remain the primary drivers of electric vehicle adoption.
He pointed to the three-wheeler segment, where penetration has already reached about 50%, as evidence that consumers easily switch to cleaner technologies when they offer clear financial benefits.
Commercial vehicles currently account for a small share of overall EV sales, but their contribution to transport emissions is disproportionately high because of intensive usage, particularlydiesel. That creates a strong case for faster electrification of buses and trucks, Babu said.
He forecast that electric buses could make up about 50% of the country's bus fleet by 2035, while electric trucks could reach around 35% penetration over the same period. "Whether it is EV or hydrogen or flex fuel, we have to make it economically viable to customers," he added.
Electric buses accounted for an estimated 4.5% of total bus sales in the financial year 2026, with demand largely from public sector under the government-backed procurement programmes such as PM E-Drive and PM eBus Sewa.
Growth is expected to gain momentum with the award of the country's largest electric bus tender for 10,900 buses in December 2025, which is set to boost deployments across multiple cities.
Electrification of freight transport has been slower despite policy support. The PM E-Drive scheme earmarked Rs 500 crore to encourage electric truck adoption, but uptake has remained limited due to high upfront costs, relatively modest incentives, vehicle scrappage requirements and concerns among fleet operators over large-scale deployment.