Electric buses are projected to account for approximately 17 percent of new bus registrations in India by next fiscal year, up from 7 percent in FY26, according to a report released by Crisil Ratings on Wednesday. The anticipated growth is driven by government procurement schemes, operational subsidies, and state-level payment security mechanisms.
Public sector procurement across urban and regional undertakings has built an order pipeline of approximately 29,000 electric buses as of September 2026. Under the PM e-Bus Sewa Scheme, government subsidies cover around 30 percent of the per-kilometre rental fees payable by State Transport Undertakings (STUs).
However, execution delays in depot works and power transmission infrastructure continue to affect deployment. Obtaining grid connectivity and dedicated power infrastructure at transport depots typically requires up to 12 months. This limits actual near-term deployments to an estimated 75 to 80 percent of total order books.
Long-term adoption and growth will also depend on expanding penetration into the private sector, which encompasses staff transport, school buses, intercity travel, and tourism operations. This account for a massive 85 to 90 percent of India's total bus fleet. With nearly 40 percent of private fleet due for replacement over the next three to five years, it presents a key structural growth opportunity.