Domestic market for PVs with ADAS to touch US $1 bn by FY28 in India

The domestic market for passenger vehicles with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) is expected to cross around US $ 1 billion by fiscal 2028. CRISIL MI&A (Market Intelligence &Analytics) pegs the market size for ADAS components at around US $169 million for fiscal 2023. 

According to a report by CRISIL, Artificial intelligence (AI) is fast becoming one of the most important technologies of our time, and has permeated almost all spheres of life. 

The auto industry, especially, has seen AI make a mark with cutting-edge technology and new innovations. ADAS is one such example.

It is a set of technologies used in cars for safely operating the vehicle. It aids the driver in steering, braking, accelerating, parking, navigation and alerts them of any potential hazard.

ADAS employs several sensors, cameras, and methods to perform various functions such as adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane keeping assist (LKA), automatic emergency braking (AEB), blind spot detection (BSD), pedestrian detection, parking assistance, adaptive headlights, etc.

The report stated ADAS has various levels depending on the degree of automation that a vehicle has been programmed to perform driver on, feet off, hands off, eyes off, mind off and driver off.

The report elaborated on each of these automations. Driver on: A human being performs all driving tasks such as steering, acceleration, braking parking etc. The features are limited to providing warnings. For example, parking sensors, forwarding collision warning, tire pressure monitoring, anti-lock braking system etc. 

The feet-off feature is the vehicle features a single automation (steering or acceleration) support. The driver must take the responsibility of controlling the vehicle at any time. Example, LKA, automatic high beam, adaptive cruise control with stop and go, traffic sign recognition etc. 

In hands-off, the vehicle can perform both steering and acceleration/ deceleration. The driver should still monitor and take control at any time needed. For example, traffic jam assist, adaptive cruise control with steering, lane following and centering assist etc. 

In eyes off, the vehicle has environment detection capabilities, allowing the vehicle to be driven under specific limited conditions. For example, automated land driving, traffic jam pilot, highway pilot, and emergency stop assist.

The Mind off allows the vehicle to perform all driving functions under certain circumstances. For instance, automatic valet parking, automated driving with geofencing, and highway autopilot.

The driver off can drive the vehicle anywhere and in all conditions in which zero human intervention is required.

One of the primary benefits of ADAS is its potential to prevent accidents. Systems such as AEB can swiftly detect an impending collision and initiate braking, reducing the risk of rear-end crashes. Moreover, features like lane departure warning (LDW) and LKA help drivers stay within their lanes, mitigating
accidents caused by unintended lane drift.

ADAS penetration
Globally, ADAS has been used rampantly for a long, with the US, China and Europe leading innovations in the technology.

In India, passenger vehicles (PVs) with ADAS features contributed to almost 2% of total PV sales in the country as of fiscal 2023.

As per CRISIL’s assessment, home-grown manufacturer Mahindra is leading the pack in terms of market share with its XUV 7OO model at 40-50%, followed by Morris Garages with its four models (Astor, Hector, ZS EV, and Gloster) at 20-30%, and Honda at the third spot with its Honda City model at 10-20%. Players such as Tata Motors, Hyundai, and Toyota have made humble beginnings, accounting for the balance share in the total ADAS-enabled PV sales for fiscal 2023.

The Indian automobile industry is at a nascent stage in terms of penetration of PVs with ADAS features, with homegrown players like Mahindra and Tata making a dash, along with international players such as MG, Honda and Toyota.

The current level of automation in India suggests that the automation technology levels L1 and L2 are making inroads, mainly in the premium SUV and sedan segments, which account for almost one-fourth of PV sales in the country. On the other hand, adoption in the hatchback segment is minimal.

The premium SUV segment (UV2) (models – Mahindra XUV700, MG Hector, Tata Harrier, Tata Safari) account for two-thirds of total ADAS PV sales, followed by the entry level SUV segment (UV1) (models - MG Astor) and midsize segment (models – Honda City and Hyundai Verna). These three segments form over 90% of ADAS PV sales, indicating minimal adoption in hatchback and other premium SUV segments.

ADAS components fit broadly in three groups — mechanical, optical and sensors. Mechanical components are the ones which enable ABS, ESP, TCS and cluster warning, while optical components mainly involve the camera systems. The sensor modules provide the most advanced safety features in the ADAS ecosystem.

Over the past few years, there has been a huge leap in the innovation of radar sensor modules. There is a wide array of choices, including long, medium, short, and ultra-short-range sensing capabilities, as well as various radar frequencies and LIDAR technology. The cost of sensor components is the most at around 45%, followed by mechanical at around 30%, and the balance of around 25% is contributed by the optical components group.

Based on CRISIL’s assessment and interactions, mid-size and UV segments are expected to register the highest ADAS penetration at 15-20% and 10-15%, respectively, by fiscal 2028, growing from 5-10% and 4-8% as of fiscal 2023.

Compact UV and hatchback/small cars segments will also see an increase of 6-10% and 4-6%, respectively, in ADAS penetration by fiscal 2028 from 0% and 1%, respectively, as of fiscal 2023.

As per CRISIL’s assessment, by fiscal 2028, of the total PV sales with ADAS features, about 55-60% are expected to be utility vehicles, followed by compact utility vehicles at 20-25%, midsize at 10-15% and balance 3-7% by hatchbacks/small cars.

The growth in India’s road infrastructure greatly benefits the implementation of ADAS. With increasing efforts by the Government of India to convert existing highways to expressways, roads are destined to become well equipped with the necessities for ADAS to flourish.

Challenges in ADAS penetration include extensive road infrastructure with proper lane markings are needed. Most local roads in India have no lane markings. Signboards are not positioned properly, and not well maintained for the cameras to read them clearly. Standardisation and regulations need of the hour to boost confidence among players in the whole ADAS ecosystem.

It may be noted that the Ministry of Road, Transport and Highways recently introduced fresh directives pertaining to signages on national highways and expressways, with the aim of improving road safety standards, ensuring better visibility, and providing intuitive directions to drivers. The guidelines will be implemented in a phased manner on all upcoming highways, expressways, and greenfield projects.

Additionally, as electric vehicles (EVs) become more common, the overall vehicle fleet will become more modern and safety-conscious. ADAS features are a good fit for the emphasis on safety in EVs, and they could become standard or desirable options.

In addition, regulations and incentives may encourage the adoption of ADAS in EVs; consumer demand for advanced technology could also drive sales. Finally, the development of autonomous driving is supported by ADAS technologies, which could further increase demand for these features.

Just as AI is poised to shape the future of the world, ADAS stands to revolutionise the automotive landscape in ways that are nothing short of transformative. It is both the forerunner and enabler of a safe and autonomous future. The path to self-driving cars may indeed be challenging with technical intricacies and regulatory frontiers, but with each passing year, the autonomous mobility envisioned is only getting closer, said the report.