'Commercial vehicle may remain flat or decline in FY25', says Tata Motors' Girish Wagh

Tata Motors Ltd struck a cautious tone on the full-year outlook for fiscal 2025 (FY25), according to comments by Girish Wagh, Executive Director, during a post-earnings call with analysts.

"We are cautiously optimistic for FY25," Wagh said. "I think we will see a flat or maybe a slight decline in the overall volumes for the year. That's where we see," he added.

The top executive further added that, otherwise, he believes that most of the parameters remain healthy in terms of the sentiment index, the freight index, and the usage per month, although they have gone down seasonally. "But I think it remains at a good level," he continued.

Wagh acknowledged his earlier projection of a slow Q1FY25 followed by a demand recovery in the second half of Q2FY25. However, he expressed revised optimism, suggesting a strong start to Q1 and continued momentum.

This tempered outlook aligns with broader industry forecasts. ICRA, a rating agency, expects the domestic CV industry's upcycle to plateau in FY25, with potential volume declines of 4–7%. Lower volumes are also anticipated to put pressure on margins, with aggregate operating profit margins (OPM) of CV OEMs likely to contract to 8.5–9.5% in FY25.

Analysts attributed the slowdown to a high base effect from the previous year and perceived disruptions due to ongoing elections in India.