BNP Paribas: India's EV Penetration Rises Marginally in July 2025 Amid Shifting OEM Dynamics

India’s electric vehicle (EV) market experienced a modest improvement in penetration across key vehicle segments in July 2025, according to a monthly sector update by BNP Paribas Securities India. While overall electrification trends remain subdued, the data reveals notable shifts in market share among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and regional variations in adoption rates.

The report highlights that electric two-wheeler (E2W) penetration rose to 7.6% in July 2025, up from 7.2% in June, despite a nearly 2% month-on-month decline in E2W sales. This increase in penetration was attributed to an even steeper drop in internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheeler sales. Hero MotoCorp and Ather Energy recorded the largest market share gains, with Hero’s sales rising 37% month-on-month following the launch of its lower-priced Vida VX2 model. TVS Motor retained its position as the market leader with a 22% share, followed by Bajaj Auto (19%) and Ola Electric (17%). However, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, and Ola Electric all saw declines in their E2W sales volumes.

In the electric passenger vehicle (EPV) segment, sales grew by approximately 18% month-on-month, lifting overall penetration to 4.6% from 4.3% in June. Tata Motors and MG Motor gained significant market share, with Tata increasing its share to 39% and MG to 32.8%, driven by new model launches including the Harrier.ev and Windsor Pro. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), in contrast, saw its EPV market share drop by 470 basis points to 18% as its volumes declined.

The electric three-wheeler (E3W) segment showed strong momentum, with registrations rising by 14% month-on-month and penetration increasing to 61.8%. Mahindra & Mahindra led the segment with a 14.2% market share, gaining 206 basis points, while Bajaj Auto also expanded its share to 11.1%.

Among non-EV electrified vehicles, petrol-CNG passenger vehicle sales rose 11% month-on-month, increasing their share of the PV market to 21.5%. Hybrid PV registrations increased by 5%, though their market penetration remained flat at 3%.

Regionally, Kerala and Karnataka led in E2W penetration, reaching 14.8% and 14.1% respectively in July. For EPVs, Delhi recorded the highest penetration at 8.3%, followed by Maharashtra at 7.8%. In the E3W segment, Uttar Pradesh achieved the highest penetration rate at 89.4%.

The report also notes emerging supply chain concerns, with OEMs warning of potential disruptions due to a shortage of rare-earth magnets, which could affect E2W production in the near term. Companies are reportedly exploring alternative sourcing strategies to mitigate the impact.

Looking ahead, several new EV models are expected to enter the market, including the Tata Sierra EV, Mahindra XUV.e8, and Maruti Suzuki’s e-Vitara, among others, which could influence competition and adoption trends in the coming months.

The analysis is based on government data and industry sources compiled by BNP Paribas. The firm’s research covers a range of automotive companies, including Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and TVS Motor.