April 2025 PV Sales Preview: Momentum Sustains, But Inventory and Retail Weakness Raise Red Flags

India’s passenger vehicle (PV) market appears to be holding steady on its upward trajectory in April 2025, supported by sustained wholesale dispatches and aggressive seasonal discounting. According to preliminary industry estimates, vehicle manufacturers are expected to ship between 350,000 and 355,000 units, translating to 4–5% year-on-year growth over April 2024.

This marks the seventh consecutive month of positive growth in the PV segment and reflects a broader post-pandemic market stabilization. However, while dispatch numbers remain robust, there are emerging signs of stress on the retail front, with rising inventory levels and tepid customer sentiment tempering the optimism.

April 2025 PV Sales Outlook
• Estimated Dispatches: 350,000–355,000 units; YoY growth of 4–5%
• Mahindra’s Rise: ~50,000 units shipped; on track to be No. 2 PV maker for the third time in 2025
• Four-Month Run Rate: ~1.52 million units shipped in Jan–Apr 2025; 3.5% YoY growth
• New April Record: Expected to surpass April 2024’s previous high of 337,160 units
• Inventory Concerns: ~600,000 units in stock; ~40 days of sales coverage
• Retail Weakness: Vahan data shows retail lag; consumer sentiment remains tepid
• Risks to Watch: Economic headwinds, particularly in South India; overreliance on discounts; equity market volatility

Mahindra Strengthens Position, Toyota Gains Ground
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is leading the charge and is expected to retain its position as the second-largest PV manufacturer in India in April. The company is estimated to have dispatched around 50,000 units, making this the third month in 2025 that it has surpassed the 50,000-unit threshold. This performance underscores Mahindra’s growing domestic footprint and the sustained traction of its refreshed SUV lineup, including models like the XUV 3XO and Thar Roxx.

Toyota has also witnessed momentum, building on the success of its hybrid portfolio and premium offerings. Overall, most major OEMs are expected to report modest wholesale growth for the month, helped in part by dealer-level schemes and festival-linked promotions.

Strong Start to 2025 Continues
If the projected April dispatches are realized, total PV wholesales for the first four months of 2025 will reach approximately 1.52 million units, a 3.5% YoY increase. Every month this year has exceeded the 350,000-unit mark, with January 2025 leading at over 403,000 units.

This signals a new baseline for India’s PV industry: ten of the last twelve months have seen dispatch volumes above 350,000 units, highlighting not just recovery but expansion. Should April shipments cross 350,000 units, it would establish a new monthly record, surpassing the previous April high of 337,160 units in 2024.

Inventory Build-Up Clouds the Outlook
Despite healthy wholesales, concerns are growing about the disconnect between dispatches and actual retail sales. Data from the Vahan portal, adjusted for spillovers, points to a more subdued retail performance, raising questions about the sustainability of wholesale growth.

Industry sources estimate that dealer inventory has risen to approximately 600,000 units, equivalent to nearly 40 days’ worth of sales. This build-up suggests that push sales drive shipment figures, supported by aggressive discounts, particularly on mass-market models.

An industry executive, requesting anonymity, said:
“We’ve seen an increase in push sales across the board. But the actual consumer walk-ins and conversions have not reached the level one would expect in this phase of the year.”

The executive also noted regional variation in demand, especially in South India, where economic stress in the IT sector has dampened sentiment. Additionally, stock market volatility and wealth erosion have weighed on urban discretionary spending.

Challenges Ahead: Balancing Growth With Demand Realities
Looking ahead, the industry will be watching the festive demand cycle closely. Historically, this period has driven a substantial uptick in retail momentum. However, the current combination of economic uncertainty, growing inventory, and discount dependence introduces risk into the growth trajectory.

While the wholesale recovery remains intact, sustained expansion will depend on a revival in consumer confidence, particularly in urban and tech-driven markets.
India’s passenger vehicle market remains in growth mode, with strong wholesales supported by sustained OEM incentives and seasonal tailwinds. Yet beneath the surface, rising inventories and sluggish retail sentiment raise caution flags. As the industry navigates the next phase of 2025, the ability to align production with real consumer demand—and not just channel fill—will determine the durability of the current growth cycle.