Analysts See Modest Uptick in Bajaj Auto Earnings in Q4 on Muted Volumes, Flat Margins

Bajaj Auto is expected to report a modest improvement in financial performance for the March quarter of financial year 2024-25, as overall volume growth remained muted and average selling prices only showed marginal changes, according to analysts.

The Pune-based company’s revenue is expected to grow by 4% on year to Rs 11,954 crore, according to average of estimates shared by five brokerages. The highest estimate is Rs 12,379 crore by DR Choksey, while Axis Securities projects the lowest at Rs 11,793 crore.

“We expect total revenues to increase by ~3% YoY, led by a 3% YoY increase in overall volumes and a mild decline in ASPs due to an inferior product mix,” Axis Securities said in a note. On the other hand, DR Choksey expects the company topline to grow by 7.1% on year, supported by improved volumes and better price realisations.

In the March quarter, the company’s net profit is projected to inch up by about 3% to Rs 1,998 crore from Rs 1,936 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. Operating profit, also known as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, is projected to grow by 5% on year to Rs 2,417.8 crore, as per estimates from four brokerages. 

EBITDA margin for the quarter is seen at 20%, nearly flat compared to 20.1% in the same period last year. In terms of realisation, Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects it to remain flat YoY, while Axis Securities foresees a slight drop due to a weaker product mix. However, DR Choksey expects average realisation to improve by 1.4%, driven by stronger premium motorcycle sales.

For the quarter, Bajaj Auto’s volumes grew by 3% YoY to 1.1 million units, helped by a 3% rise in two-wheeler sales and 5% growth in three-wheelers. However, the increase was entirely driven by exports, which rose 19% on year, offsetting a 7% year-on-year decline in domestic demand.

On a sequential basis, the Pulsar branded motorcycles’ manufacturer is expected to report a weaker financial performance, primarily due to lower volumes. Revenue is projected to decline 7% compared to the December quarter, while net profit is seen falling by 5%.

The company’s March quarter volumes were 10% lower than the December quarter. Its two-wheelers sales dropped by 10.4% and three-wheelers decreased by 6.2%. However, Motilal Oswal expects the impact of lower volumes to be offset by an improved mix led by higher exports and Pulsar sales and favorable currency movement.

Bajaj Auto is set to announce its results today. At 1128 IST, the company’s stock was trading 0.4% higher at ₹8,884.5 on the NSE.

Investors will closely watch for the company’s FY26 outlook, including domestic and export volume guidance for two-wheelers, its roadmap for electric vehicles, and views on rural vs urban demand. Margin expectations for the coming year, as well as updates on the scale-up of electric three-wheelers and the loan to KTM, will also be in focus.