India to trail global EV adoption rates - BloombergNEF

The latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook by BloombergNEF, the research arm of Bloomberg Finance, indicates that despite a mixed near-term outlook in some markets, EV adoption is poised for continued growth globally. The report cites rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-generation battery technology, and improving economics of EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles as key drivers underpinning the sector's long-term expansion.

According to the 'business as usual' scenario presented in the report, global electric car sales are projected to rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to 30.2 million by 2027, representing an average annual growth rate of 21% over the next four years. This growth, while robust, marks a slowdown from the blistering 61% average annual growth witnessed between 2020 and 2023.

By 2027, EVs are expected to capture 33% of global new passenger vehicle sales, up from 17.8% in 2023. China, the United States, and Europe are forecast to account for a dominant 89% of worldwide passenger EV sales in 2027.

Looking further ahead, the ETS projects that improving EV economics will continue to drive adoption, with EVs reaching 45% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2030 and an impressive 73% by 2040.

India's EV Market: Strong Growth Ahead, but Trailing Global Adoption Rates

BloombergNEF's report indicates that India's EV market is poised for significant growth in the coming years, driven by rising consumer interest and an expanding range of models, but it will trail other major economies in adoption. Under the business as usual scenario, India's EV sales are projected to triple to 284,400 units by 2027 up from just 96,000 in 2023.

As underlying technologies continue to improve and battery prices decline, India's EV adoption is expected to shift from being primarily policy-driven to increasingly propelled by consumer demand. This shift is forecast to drive a sharp rise in India's EV sales after 2030, with annual sales surpassing 5.9 million units by 2040 under the ETS.

However, despite this strong growth trajectory, India's EV adoption is expected to lag the global average in the coming decades. The report suggests that India, along with Southeast Asia and Brazil, will still trail the worldwide EV adoption rate by 2040, even as these markets experience rapid growth in EV sales.

In other words, while BloombergNEF's outlook paints a broadly positive picture for India's EV sector, the country's transition to electric mobility is likely to proceed at a somewhat slower pace compared to leading EV markets such as China, Europe, and the United States.