Tata Motors Bets on 3–5% CV Market Growth till 2030, Sets ₹3,000 Cr Annual Capex Target

Tata Motors expects India’s commercial vehicle (CV) industry to grow at a 3–5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through FY2030, supported by favourable infrastructure investments, rising freight demand, and a stable regulatory environment. As per the company’s projections, road freight movement (BTKM) is expected to grow at a 5–7% CAGR, reinforcing long-term growth visibility for the segment.

Presenting the outlook at Investor Day 2025, Girish Wagh, Executive Director – Commercial Vehicles, outlined a bold, integrated plan to strengthen Tata Motors’ leadership and resilience in the CV space.

Data shared during the presentation highlighted improved operating indicators in the market. Freight rates rose by 14%, and transporter profitability improved by 5% between January 2023 and May 2025, reflecting stronger fleet economics despite muted sentiment. This augurs well for driving volumes in the current financial year.

On its part, the company is targeting, “Deliver double-digit EBITDA across cycles, while delivering industry-beating revenue growth,” the presentation noted, underlining the company’s commitment to profitable scale.

With FY25 CV revenues at ₹75,000 crore, Tata Motors has committed to investing ₹1,500–3,000 crore annually (2–4% of revenues) over the next few years. The focus of this capex will be on:

• Multi-energy product platforms including battery electric, CNG, LNG, and hydrogen
• Advanced safety systems such as ADAS and driver monitoring
• Digitally enabled services for uptime assurance and total cost of ownership optimization

The CV business is targeting:

• 40% market share
• Teens-level EBITDA margins
• Free cash flow of 7–9% of revenue (post-tax)
• High and sustainable ROCE with reduced volatility

The transformation is part of a larger structural shift, as Wagh emphasized a pivot away from cyclical exposure by scaling up non-cyclical revenue streams such as digital platforms, aftermarket services, and international markets.

“To be a trusted, globally recognized mobility solutions leader with sustainability at the core,” the company stated as its long-term vision.

The company also reiterated its commitment to customer-led innovation, noting its emphasis on:

“Innovative & tech-led products, digital & AI, sustainability, and capability development.”

Tata Motors is doubling down on its downstream and digital platforms—including Fleet Edge, Freight Tiger, and EV-based smart mobility solutions—as part of a wider goal to offer full lifecycle value to fleet operators.

Wagh reaffirmed to investors that the CV division’s strategic intent is to, “Exceed stakeholder & customer expectations, deliver superior financial returns, and foster diverse talent, innovation, and ecosystems.”