Shell Releases India Energy Scenarios Sketch Mapping Three Transition Pathways to 2050

Shell India on Thursday published its 2026 Scenarios Sketch, titled "India's Energy Transition in a Security-Focused Age," presenting three alternative visions of how India could meet growing energy demand through mid-century. The report was unveiled at the TERI World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS) 2026 in New Delhi.

The sketch frames three scenarios — Archipelagos, Surge, and Horizon — each shaped by a different configuration of geopolitical pressures, technological change, and climate policy. Archipelagos and Surge assess energy security through the lens of national self-reliance and economic resilience under present-day global conditions. Horizon offers a normative pathway aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, centered on climate and environmental security.

According to the report, India's energy demand has grown nearly 40 percent over the past decade, driven by economic expansion and population growth. The analysis projects that India's total energy demand will surpass that of the United States in the 2040s and China in the 2060s, positioning the country as a central actor in global energy markets.

Solar and wind generation, which accounted for approximately 3 percent of final electricity consumption in 2015, now exceed 20 percent and are projected to supply at least 59 percent of electricity across all three scenarios by 2050. The report notes that India has already surpassed earlier renewable energy targets and is expected to announce a new Nationally Determined Contribution for 2035.

The sketch identifies natural gas and liquefied natural gas as transition fuels across all scenarios, with gas demand projected to rise 50 percent or more within the next decade. The report attributes this to gas's role in balancing intermittent renewables, supporting industrial and residential demand, and meeting the electricity needs of data centers driven by artificial intelligence workloads.

On the transport side, electric vehicle adoption is forecast to displace the oil-equivalent of 41 percent of road travel in the Archipelagos scenario, 53 percent in Surge, and 58 percent in Horizon by 2050. Fossil fuels' share of India's energy mix is expected to peak this decade, though absolute volumes are projected to continue rising in the Surge and Archipelagos scenarios as overall energy demand doubles.

The report outlines five priority areas for action over the next decade: accelerating low-carbon electrification; expanding electric vehicle infrastructure and incentives; improving industrial competitiveness through low-carbon fuels and technologies; maintaining transition fuels to support an orderly shift away from traditional biomass; and developing frameworks to make carbon removal investments viable in support of India's 2070 net-zero target.

The full report is available on Shell India's website. Shell stated that the scenarios are not intended as forecasts or as a reflection of the company's business strategy.