India’s Domestic Market Shields Economy From Global Shocks: S&P Global

India’s large domestic market provides a buffer against global volatility, helping it remain the fastest-growing major economy, according to S&P Global’s latest India Forward: Shifting Horizons report.

The study projects India’s GDP will expand by 6.5% in fiscal year 2025–26, despite shifting global trade policies and external uncertainties. S&P Global noted that while external shocks have posed short-term challenges in the past, India has managed to sustain its long-term growth trajectory through economic reforms, infrastructure expansion, and process improvements.

The report highlighted several key trends shaping India’s outlook. Private credit is expected to play a bigger role in bridging financing gaps left by traditional lenders, while India’s digital economy is driving demand for datacenter capacity. By 2028, India is projected to become the second-largest market in Asia-Pacific for datacenter electricity demand, overtaking Japan and Australia.

The study also points to opportunities in emerging sectors. India aims to scale its shipbuilding industry to rank among the world’s top five by 2047, up from less than 1% global share today. Efforts are also underway to localize the nuclear value chain, with reforms anticipated in 2026–27 to simplify liability frameworks and boost domestic capacity.

On the energy and transport front, the report observed that while electric vehicle adoption is growing, biofuels and green hydrogen will remain critical for heavy transport and legacy fleets. State-level incentives and central government initiatives are expected to accelerate this transition.

Atul Arya, Executive Sponsor of the India Research Chapter and Chief Energy Strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said: “Frameworks that accelerate infrastructure development, promote inclusive reforms, foster private investments, diversify trade and build resilient supply chains can help India seize opportunities. This edition of India Forward shines light on multidimensional and multistakeholder approaches that will strengthen India’s growing claim as a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse.”

The India Forward: Shifting Horizons report is prepared by S&P Global and Crisil’s India Research Chapter, under the S&P Global India Leadership Council.