Zero-Emission Transport Transition Could Prevent 1.7 Million Premature Deaths in India by 2050: ICCT

A faster transition to zero-emission vehicles could prevent 1.7 million premature deaths in India between now and 2050, according to a report released by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

The study, titled 'Health benefits of zero-emission transport through 2050', models an ambitious regulatory scenario where all new vehicle sales in India reach zero emissions by 2045. Under current levels, road transport pollution is linked to 90,000 premature deaths and 15,300 new childhood asthma cases annually in the country, representing 13% of global road transport-attributable premature deaths. In 2024, vehicle emissions accounted for one premature death every six minutes and one new case of pediatric asthma every 34 minutes.

The health impact is heavily concentrated in Northern India along the Indo-Gangetic Plain, with the National Capital Region (NCR) identified as a primary hotspot. The NCR accounted for 8,100 premature deaths (9% of the national total) and 3,500 new pediatric asthma cases (23% of the national total) in 2024, despite holding approximately 5% of India's population. Within the NCR, Delhi recorded 2,800 premature deaths and 1,500 new pediatric asthma cases tied to vehicle emissions.

Population-weighted exposure to road transport-derived PM2.5 in Delhi reached 13 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, exceeding the World Health Organization annual guideline for total PM2.5 exposure from all sources combined by more than 2.5 times. Additionally, in heavily polluted areas of the NCR, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels from road transport alone exceeded the total WHO threshold of 10 micrograms per cubic meter.

The report highlights heavy-duty vehicles as a primary contributor to tailpipe pollution. Trucks and buses generated 79% of total road transport nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and 64% of tailpipe PM2.5 emissions across India in 2024.

Lingzhi Jin, Senior Researcher at the ICCT and co-author of the study, noted that the health burden remains starkly uneven, with the NCR facing disproportionate exposure among children during routine daily travel. ICCT researchers emphasized that achieving long-term public health gains will require pairing zero-emission vehicle adoption with regulatory measures to phase out older, high-emitting fleets, alongside expanding clean transport policies beyond the national capital region.