India’s electric vehicle ambitions could increasingly hinge on its ability to secure and process critical minerals as the country targets 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 alongside rapid expansion of electric mobility and battery energy storage. A Grant Thornton Bharat report warns that demand for battery materials such as lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt and copper is set to surge over the coming decades, while India’s refining, recycling and processing ecosystem remains underdeveloped.
The report argues that India must look beyond mining and rapidly build capabilities across the entire critical minerals value chain, including beneficiation, battery-grade refining, recycling infrastructure and overseas resource acquisition. It says these will be essential to reduce import dependence and create a resilient supply chain for electric vehicles, battery energy storage systems (BESS) and renewable energy.
The urgency is underscored by the scale of India’s energy transition. The report estimates the country’s EV ecosystem will require 110-130 GWh of battery demand by 2030, while BESS deployment is projected to reach around 145 GWh over the same period. Together, they are expected to drive a sharp increase in demand for lithium, nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements across the automotive and energy sectors.
One of the report’s biggest concerns is India’s battery recycling ecosystem. EV battery demand is projected to rise from around 25 GWh in 2024 to 115 GWh by 2030, yet the country currently has recycling capacity of only about 2 GWh, leaving a nearly 60-fold gap. It also notes that India generates around 1.75 million tonnes of e-waste annually, a figure expected to increase to 54 million tonnes by 2040, creating a significant opportunity for recovering valuable battery materials.
Demand for key battery minerals is projected to rise exponentially over the next two decades. Lithium demand is expected to increase from 66,305 tonnes in 2030 to 1.69 million tonnes by 2050, while nickel demand could grow from 253,940 tonnes to more than 4 million tonnes. Graphite demand is projected to rise from 700,016 tonnes to 15.65 million tonnes, copper from 1.88 million tonnes to 22.5 million tonnes, and rare earth elements from 15,146 tonnes to 227,032 tonnes over the same period.
The report argues that India’s biggest bottleneck is no longer exploration alone but the lack of midstream capabilities such as beneficiation, refining and processing needed to convert minerals into battery-grade materials. While India has identified domestic resources for minerals including graphite, rare earth elements, titanium and copper, several battery-critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel continue to rely heavily on imports or overseas processing.
It also cautions that conventional approaches such as developing new mines or acquiring overseas assets typically take 10-20 years to deliver production, whereas recycling infrastructure can be established within two to four years. Globally, recycled critical minerals could reduce the need for new mining by 25-40% by 2050, making recycling not just an environmental initiative but a strategic supply-chain imperative.
The report further notes that while regions such as the European Union have introduced mandatory recycled-content requirements for batteries and the United States has linked incentives to critical mineral sourcing, India still lacks strong demand-side measures, recycled-content mandates and large-scale financing mechanisms needed to accelerate circularity.
For passenger vehicle manufacturers, commercial vehicle OEMs, battery makers and Tier-1 suppliers investing in EV localisation, the findings suggest that the next competitive advantage may lie as much in securing battery material supply chains as in expanding vehicle production. The report recommends strengthening domestic refining and processing, scaling battery recycling, extending production-linked incentives to critical mineral processing, accelerating project approvals and promoting greater domestic value addition.
If India succeeds in building domestic refining, recycling and battery material processing alongside vehicle manufacturing, it could significantly reduce supply-chain risks for automakers while improving localisation. Without those capabilities, however, the country’s rapidly expanding EV manufacturing base is likely to remain dependent on imported battery materials despite growing domestic demand.