Centrum Forecasts Revenue Surge for Auto Component Sector

The automotive supply chain is shifting into high gear as the 2026 fiscal year has recently ended. According to the latest analysis from Centrum Institutional Research, the firm’s automotive and ancillary coverage universe is projected to report a robust 26.3% year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth for Q4FY26E.

Production Ramp-Up Drives Momentum

The primary engine behind this growth is a massive production ramp-up across almost every vehicle category. Analysts expect double-digit volume expansion in passenger vehicles (PV), commercial vehicles (CV), and two-wheelers (2W). This momentum is supported by better financing options for buyers and "festive tailwinds" that have kept dealerships busy. For instance, the nation’s largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki, is expected to see its revenue jump by 27%, fueled by an 11.8% increase in vehicles sold.

Bearing Manufacturers in the Spotlight

The extent of growth can be understood from the projected results of some major bearing manufacturing companies. For instance, Schaeffler India is leading the group with a projected 20% YoY revenue increase. SKF India is expected to deliver 15% revenue growth, supported by the mid-teen production increases seen across the car and motorcycle segments.

Timken India is anticipated to post a 13% rise in revenue, as its performance is bolstered by a seasonal uptick in the railway sector and a boost in commercial truck volumes. Divgi TTS is expected to report 73% YoY revenue growth (low base), led by higher transfer case offtake amid improved M&M volumes post GST cut, along with continued traction in the component segment supported by export growth.

Beyond the Highway: Industrial and Export Trends

While the cars on the road are a major factor, these manufacturers are also finding success in the industrial segment. Growth in sectors such as railways, wind energy, and power processing is expected to stay in the high-single to low-double-digit range. Diversifying into these areas helps component makers maintain a balanced "growth profile" even if car sales fluctuate.

However, the international stage presents a more complicated picture. Centrum describes export performance as "mixed" across the industry. While some players are finding strong traction abroad, others face a more stagnant global environment, making domestic demand the more reliable driver for this quarter.

The Bottom Line

While the top-line revenue numbers are impressive, the industry is still grappling with elevated commodity costs—the prices of raw materials like steel. Despite these pressures, the overall operational profit (EBITDA) for the sector is expected to grow by a staggering 40.7% YoY.

Way forward

Looking ahead, experts warn that while current demand is robust, geopolitical volatility and the potential for further raw material price hikes remain the primary risks to watch.