Recent study indicates transition to EVs will be slow

by Autocar Pro News Desk , 30 Jan 2020

A recent analysis by global supplier SEG Automotive based on the IHS Markit data shows the worldwide change toward e-mobility will be slower than expected. IHS Markit is a London based analysis company. According to SEG, based on that report even on a global scale only a fraction of total cars manufactured are forecast to be pure battery electric by 2025.  

At the same time, technologies that make combustion engines more efficient are set to rapidly increase their market penetration: 48V mild hybridisation is expected to reach double the market share of EVs globally by 2025. At the same time, start/stop is being applied as a universal solution as well – it has exceeded 50 percent global market penetration for the first time in 2019.

In India, change is coming as well – with electrification to take off first in the two- and three-wheeler segment, while on the ICE's for passenger cars technologies like Start/Stop and 48V hybrids enables fuel efficiency improvements and hence CO2 reduction.

To protect the climate and achieve the increasingly stringent CO2 legislation targets, vehicles will need to become as efficient as possible. OEMs have started increasing the share of start/stop in their vehicles, but are also applying new solutions like 48V hybridisation. Every major country has a somewhat different approach, with India focusing on electric two-wheelers instead of cars for electric mobility. In the Indian perspective, the combustion engine is expected to continue dominating the passenger car market in midterm, while EV is expected to pick up in two-wheelers and  three-wheelers.

Anil Kumar M R, president and MD, SEG Automotive India said: “Air pollution is already a major problem in India, with the WHO ranking 9 Indian cities among the 10 most polluted in the world.  Electric cars will only reach a minor market share in India in mid-term . However, migration to EV is expected to be faster in case of two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments. In times where the public charging infrastructure in India is yet to be fully established, their usage pattern and average driving distance per day makes 2Ws and 3Ws suitable for electrification right away. FAME II policy of the Indian government supports electrification of these segments. The decreased total cost of ownership coupled with government incentives supports the migration of 2Ws and 3Ws to EV at a much faster pace compared to passenger cars.”

SEG Automotive India suggests that accordingly, the aim must be to focus on: downsizing and 48V hybridisation of combustion engines,  and electrification of vehicles such as e-scooters and e-autos. The dense traffic situation in metropolitan areas also offers great savings potential for start/stop technology. SEG estimates that had all combustion engine cars produced in India in 2018 been equipped with start/stop, the fuel savings over their lifetime would have exceeded 3.7 billion litres of fuel and 8.6 million tonnes of CO2.

“The start/stop technology is not yet widespread in India, but is forecast to almost double its current market penetration by 2025. An increased focus of the government on greener mobility as well as the recent introduction of especially compact start/stop starters might lead to even faster growth – and thus higher savings,” commented Kumar M R.

Furthermore, the Indian automotive industry which has been hit hard by the recent economic downturn and car production in the country down by almost 20 percent in 2019. The country is expected to see recovery after few years which will see strong growth returning, with forecasts expecting the production in 2025 to be 50 percent higher than last year. This makes any efficiency increases all the more important to reduce pollution.

 “In the upcoming Auto expo 2020, SEG Automotive is showcasing its latest products and innovations enabling the transformation towards greener and cleaner mobility in India. SEG automotive will be presenting its products ranging from 12V Start/Stop starter motors, High efficiency generators for conventional combustion engine vehicles to 48V machines for pure electric and hybrid vehicles. During the Auto Expo, SEG Automotive is planning to launch its new range of e-motors for light electric vehicles in India,” concluded Kumar M R.

Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars and commercial vehicles is a central and global concern to combat climate change. It is becoming a particularly important topic in India, both to reduce urban pollution and dependence on oil imports. Driven by an increased social awareness, stricter CO2 legislation and new business opportunities, the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles has begun.