India's Aluminium Makers Set for Best Profits in a Decade: Crisil

India's primary aluminium producers are poised for their most profitable year in a decade, according to a Crisil Ratings analysis released Monday, as the ongoing West Asia conflict disrupts a significant share of global supply and drives London Metal Exchange prices to levels not seen in ten years.

The credit rating agency projects EBITDA margins for domestic producers will exceed $1,450 per tonne in fiscal 2027, compared to a decadal average of around $560 per tonne, a near-threefold improvement driven largely by external supply shocks rather than domestic factors.

The root cause lies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, which contributed 8.3% of global aluminium output in calendar year 2025. Strikes on smelting infrastructure, compounded by gas supply shortages since the conflict began in February 2026, have disrupted GCC production by 40–50%. Crisil estimates this could push the global supply deficit to a decadal high of 1.5–2.0 million tonnes this year, against an average deficit of under 0.5 million tonnes over the prior five years.

LME aluminium prices have averaged above $3,500 per tonne since the conflict began, the highest in a decade. Even if hostilities ease within one to two quarters, Crisil expects prices to remain elevated in the $3,200–3,300 per tonne range through fiscal 2027, given that global smelting capacity is already running above 90% utilisation and China's primary output is near its 45 million tonne policy cap.

Indian producers, whose realisations are benchmarked to LME prices, benefit from a structural cost advantage that insulates them from the same pressures weighing on GCC rivals. Power, accounting for roughly 40–45% of production cost, is sourced predominantly from captive coal-based plants co-located with smelters, shielding companies from global gas price volatility. Raw materials, making up a further 30–35% of costs, are largely sourced domestically, with backward integration covering 85–90% of alumina requirements.

Total production costs for integrated Indian producers are expected to rise only modestly, to $1,900–1,950 per tonne in fiscal 2027 from an estimated $1,865 per tonne in fiscal 2026, a contained increase relative to the sharp jump in realisations.

The three producers covered in Crisil's study, Vedanta Aluminium Metal, Bharat Aluminium Company, and Hindalco Industries, collectively represent approximately 90% of India's 4.6 million tonne installed capacity. Domestic capacity has expanded from 3.6 million tonnes per annum in fiscal 2022 to 4.2 million tonnes in fiscal 2026.

Demand conditions also appear supportive. Domestic aluminium consumption is forecast to grow 7–9% this fiscal, underpinned by electrification investment and rising electric vehicle adoption. Export opportunities are additionally expected to open up, particularly with buyers in Europe, Japan, and the United States who previously relied on GCC supply. Together, these factors are projected to sustain capacity utilisation at 85–90% despite the capacity additions.

Operating cash accruals are also expected to reach a decadal high, with net leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, forecast to remain below 2.0 times, pointing to continued credit profile stability.

Crisil flagged one key downside risk: a faster-than-expected restoration of GCC production capacity could unwind LME prices sharply, materially affecting the projections. The agency noted this will remain a key variable to monitor over the coming quarters.